Can I really fold a full house here?

Now, this hand is a truly interesting one! We are playing 500/1,000/100 and Ian opens to 2,000 UTG. I call from the HJ with the lovely QJ of hearts. Button, SB (Lappin) and BB also call and we see a flop of AsJc6h. Checks around. Turn brings the Js giving me trips and also bringing a flush draw. It checks to me and I bet 5,200 into 10,900, trying to get value from Ax hands and making flush draws pay to see another spade. Lappin has other plans, however, and check-raises to 15,600 from the SB. I think his range here is very strong overall, as I am showing a lot of strength betting into 4 people on this board. I think his value range is: 66 (3 combos), AJs (1 combo), KJs (1 combo). The reason I exclude AJo and KJo here is that I think he would not flat call these pre-flop, but rather squeeze AJo and probably fold KJo. His bluff range is quite hard to estimate here, but it will obviously be made up of spade hands. His (assumed) possible spade flush draws here are: KQ, KT, K9, QT, Q9, T9, T8, 98, 97, 87, 86, 76, 75, 65, 64 and 54, in total 16 combos.

Lappins potential spade draws

This is clearly a rough guesstimation, but it will do. I don’t think he would check-raise all these combo’s, so let’s make some more assumptions. Let’s assume he folds his worst ones, calls his best ones (the royal draws) and bluff check-raises the medium ones. Let’s remove KQ, KT, QT, and then 98 and everything below. That leaves us with K9, Q9, T9, T8 so four bluff combos in total.

Lappin giving the stare down treatment (Photo by: Tommy Mandel)

I think QJ is a clear call here, as first of all he could be bluffing, and second of all we have outs against some of his value range. We make the call and the river brings the 6d, making the final board AsJc6h Js 6d. Lappin thinks for a bit and shoves his whole 53k stack into the pot of 42k. Let’s sit back and do two things here. Let’s have a look at my perceived range on the river, and then another look at his. My range after first betting into 4 people on this turn, and then calling a check-raise, is probably KJs, QJs, JTs, J9s and nothing else. I think I bet all my 2 pair/set hands on the flop, and I fold all my flush draws vs the turn check-raise. FWIW I think Lappin is a good enough player that he understands this. Now let’s have another look at his range on the river. 66 is still there, but it’s now 1 combo instead of 3. AJs is still the 1 combo, and KJs is still 1 combo (but we are now chopping with that one). His bluffs are still the same 4 (guesstimated) combos.

Davids guesstimated range

Against his guesstimated range we have 64% equity. Even if he only bluffs half of the spade combos we gave him, we have 50% equity. So let’s find out how much equity we need to have here to make the call.

Villain is here risking 52,000 to win 42,000, so:
B (ratio of what he is risking to what he can win (bet size/potsize) = 53,000/42,000= 1,26
A = B/(B+1) = 1,26/2,26 = 0,558
Minimum Defence Frequency: (1-A)% = 1 – 0,558 = 44,2%.

So we can see that even if he bluffs only half of the estimated bluff combos we gave him, we need to call here. The big question is however, would he bluff here? Does he trust enough in our ability to make big laydowns? Does he expect us to hero-fold our jack here? I thought about the hand for a couple of minutes, before some Italian guy at our table called the clock on me. Fuck Kassouf for making this an accepted thing to do, but I digress…

In the end, I state that I would fold this hand vs everyone else at the table (which honestly I think I would) but that I believe Lappin is tricky/good enough to try to make me fold a jack here. I make the crying call before my 1-minute clock runs out and Lappin tables 66 for quads. He scoops a nice 150k pot and I am left with 35k or so.

If you wanna check out other interesting hands from this tournament, including how I lost my last 30 bigs with JJ vs Ian Simpsons AQ, check out my previous post.

Next tournament will be PSC Barcelona in a couple of weeks. I will be selling some action for the €1,1k, €2,2k and €5,3k events down there, so get in touch through some social media if you are interested in a piece!

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